Package: ErrorTracer
Type: Package
Title: Bayesian Error Propagation and Forecast Uncertainty
        Decomposition
Version: 1.4.2
Date: 2026-11-05
Authors@R: c(
    person(given = "Luis Javier", family = "Madrigal-Roca", role = c("aut", "cre"), email = "madrigalrocalj@yahoo.com"),
    person(given = "John", family = "Kelly", role = "aut", email = "jkk@ku.edu")
  )
Description: Provides a full pipeline from regularized or standard regression
    models (elastic net, linear models, generalized linear models, random
    forests) to informed Bayesian priors, or accepts an existing 'brms' fit
    directly, for structured forecast uncertainty decomposition (parameter /
    environmental / residual, plus group-level variance for new random-effect
    levels and a temporal component under autocorrelation, alongside global
    Sobol indices), forecast shelf life analysis (quantifying when a forecast
    becomes uninformative, with Kaplan-Meier pooling across forecast origins),
    null-model skill scoring, and calibration diagnostics. Designed for
    ecological and genomic forecasting with climate or environmental
    covariates. Methods build on Bürkner (2017) <doi:10.18637/jss.v080.i01>
    for Bayesian regression via 'Stan', Friedman, Hastie, and Tibshirani
    (2010) <doi:10.18637/jss.v033.i01> for elastic net regularization,
    Wright and Ziegler (2017) <doi:10.18637/jss.v077.i01> for random forests,
    and Vehtari, Gelman, and Gabry (2017) <doi:10.1007/s11222-016-9696-4>
    for leave-one-out cross-validation.
License: MIT + file LICENSE
Encoding: UTF-8
LazyData: true
Depends: R (>= 4.1.0)
Imports: brms (>= 2.20.0), ggplot2 (>= 3.4.0), rlang (>= 1.1.0), stats,
        utils
Suggests: survival, loo (>= 2.6.0), bayesplot (>= 1.10.0), scales (>=
        1.3.0), tidyr (>= 1.3.0), glmnet (>= 4.1.0), ranger (>=
        0.15.0), dplyr (>= 1.1.0), testthat (>= 3.0.0), knitr,
        rmarkdown, covr
Config/testthat/edition: 3
VignetteBuilder: knitr
Config/roxygen2/version: 8.1.0
NeedsCompilation: no
Packaged: 2026-11-05 20:02:51 UTC; madrigalrocalj
Author: Luis Javier Madrigal-Roca [aut, cre],
  John Kelly [aut]
Maintainer: Luis Javier Madrigal-Roca <madrigalrocalj@yahoo.com>
Repository: CRAN
Date/Publication: 2026-11-05 23:20:21 UTC
